We are really getting into the grind now. Week 5 is when the NFL starts to shake itself out. I can tell you that I feel much better with my picks than I did after Week 1 and 2. I think the guys feel the same way. Let’s see if feeling better means more positive results. Here are the Week 4 records:
Week 4 Records:
Blind Owl: 8-6-2
In the interest of full disclosure, when Brendawn and I took it on the chin last week we made a pact that we don’t care who wins as long as it isn’t the Cowboy. Based on these numbers, our plan clearly paid off. The Cowboy had a decent lead, but have Brendawn and I closed the gap? Let’s have a look:
Blind Owl: 24-37-3
Well, we didn’t only close the gap, we totally destroyed it. I’m in last, clearly, but I’m only one game out. I bet the Cowboy is shaking in his boots down there in Florida. Brendawn and I are feeling cocky now that we put the fear of God in our opponent. Now that we are basically knotted up again, let’s dive right into Week 5 with Thursday Night Football.
IND @ DEN: DEN -3
Blind Owl: My Broncos have been a bit of a disappointment this year. It pains me to say it, but I think Hackett is a hack. That being said, I still have faith. The Colts have not looked like the wagon I thought they would be. I thought they would trounce their way to a division crown. Losing Javonte Williams is going to hurt the Broncos but not as much as Randy Gregory. RBs are replaceable in my opinion. This is a tough one for me. I’m going to have to go with my Broncos, but I have no confidence.
Concret3Cowboy: Disappointment is just mismanaging your expectations.. and that’s where I am with the Broncos. I wasn’t totally sold on the first time head coach taking this team over the top, but I was high on the roster. Williams being knocked out for the season hurts, especially because he was my best RB on my fantasy squad (we took our first L of the season, it was a rough week for me last week). I think Taylor being out makes the Colts offense be totally different and that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be worse. Hines is a pretty good receiving back and has some speed in him. For the Broncos, last week losing to the Raiders, a winless Raiders at that, hurts pretty good. I’m going with Colts just to protect my emotions, might as well put me in a Starbucks and color my hair blue. This pick is my safe place because either way I win.
BrendawnoftheDead: Colts with JT have a chance, Colts without JT not so much. Denver is boring as Hell to watch this year and Russell Wilson hasn't been right, but they get it done. They'll put me to sleep for the second consecutive game, but they win and cover.
DET @ NE: NE -3
Blind Owl: Sunday starts with a tough one. The number one offense is taking on a 3rd string QB. I have no faith in either team. I do think that the Patriots have a better defense though. The Lions have the worst scoring defense, and that will keep the Pats in it. If I could pick a push I would, but I have to pick someone I suppose. I’ll take the Pats because of a better defense.
Concret3Cowboy: When Detroit is favored you go against them, when they’re the underdogs they will cover. Detroit is my ride. BrendawnoftheDead: 3rd string QB vs the number 1 scoring offense in football, what could go wrong? Thankfully Detroit also features the worst scoring defense in football. I'm picking New England because they are at home, but I don't feel good about it.
NYG @ GB: GB -8
Blind Owl: Last week I thought the Packers would take the Patriots out to the woodshed. But the Packers let them hang around and almost lost to a 3rd string rookie QB. Quite honestly, that was an embarrassing win. Here they are again with another big spread against yet another bad team. I do think the Giants’ defense is putrid, and Daniel Jones isn’t good. But Saquon Barkley could take over the game. I really don’t know what to do here. I’ll take Green Bay I guess. But if they let me down again, I’m done.
Concret3Cowboy: As bad as the Broncos offense has been, the Packers are right there with them. Jones is pretty injured, and doesn’t have receivers. Pack has a better defense so that’s where I am siding. BrendawnoftheDead: The Giants are frauds outside of Barkley. Daniel Jones still stinks. The Packers looked bad against a depleted Patriots squad last week, but they'll do enough this week as the Giants do not feature a defense on the same level as NE. Packers by 10.
PIT @ BUF: BUF -14
Blind Owl: Another huge spread here. This one makes more sense though. The Steelers don’t really have a starting QB on their roster. The QB room is a collection of decent backups. The Bills have Josh Allen who may be the best QB in the league. I’m picking the Bills to win big. Hopefully I’m not forced to watch this one though.
Concret3Cowboy: This is not a good game for Pickett to get his first start. The Bills defense is aggressive and even hurts their own players. No one circles the wagons better. BrendawnoftheDead: Good news yinzers, Kenny Pickett only has 3 incompletions this year! Oh wait, he's only played in one game and they're all interceptions… ouch. Josh Allen dominates this matchup and the Steelers give the ball to the Bills a bunch. Bills cover
CHI @ MIN: MIN -7.5
Blind Owl: Chicago is bad. Like really bad. The Vikings will take this easily. Here’s to hoping they don’t get up early and let the Bears score late.
Concret3Cowboy: I don’t know about this one. 7.5 points is a lot for a divisional game. This feels like a trap, the Vikings are coming back from london after a tight game against the Saints. I don’t see the Vikings dog walking the Bears in this one. BrendawnoftheDead: Outside of Denver, Chicago has the most putrid offense in the NFL… PUTRID! Minnesota wins and covers.
SEA @ NO: NO -5.5
Blind Owl: We all know my hatred for the Seahawks. It’s been pretty well documented. That being said, the Saints have looked bad this year. Jameis is who he is, he’ll throw picks and TDs like it’s going out of style. Geno Smith has been, well, decent out there for Seattle. I’m going to take Seattle with the points and go against my emotions.
Concret3Cowboy: Seattle is the kind of team that's playing way over their heads. They're a scrappy squad that believes they're better than they are. I’m just pretty turned off by the Saints at this point, I do like Dennis Allen as a HC but the Saints need help on offense. BrendawnoftheDead: Ummm… Seattle covers I guess? I don't think either team is any good, certainly not good enough for a 5.5 spread.
MIA @ NYJ: MIA -3.5
Blind Owl: Listen, I’ve got nothing against Teddy Bridgewater. In fact, when he was in Minnesota I kind of liked him. I didn’t much care for him last year, but that was more about the Broncos sucking than him. As a backup QB on a good team, he is actually quite a good fit. The Dolphins offense is full of quick weapons that get open fast and a good TE safety blanket. Good for a young Tua and perfect for a solid veteran like Teddy. The Jets are just the Jets. Here’s to hoping the Jets follow in the footsteps of the Mets and lose big today.
Concret3Cowboy: The offense in Denver was better with Shurmur and Bridgewater than they are with Hackett and Wilson *throws up violently* … Miami has the talent for Bridgewater to work with, 3.5 points here is a gift for Miami. I know I’ve liked the Jets in the spreads this year and that's worked out well more than not but Miami is going to blow by 3.5 points here. BrendawnoftheDead: I will never pick the Jets. I will never pick the Jets. I will never pick the Jets. I will never pick the Jets. I will never pick the Jets. I will never pick the Jets.
ATL @ TB: TB -10
Blind Owl: God these big spreads are killers. TB12 hasn’t been good. Let’s not forget he’s like 68 years old and going through a divorce. That would get to me too. Atlanta is what they are. They’re not a particularly good team. But 10 points is a lot for a divisional game. Just like Green Bay, I’ll take Tampa on a short leash. If Brady lets me down again, I’ll dump him quicker than Giselle does.
Concret3Cowboy: Did you hear that Gisele is a witch? That’s why Brady has stayed an “athletic” old man.. But I'll admit, he is a sexy bastard. Gisele had shrines set up for Brady before games and spoke into crystals she gave him? Well Brady has to sacrifice a goat or something because I’m rising up with the Falcons to cover here. BrendawnoftheDead: Atlanta has shown some fight this year and Tampa kind of looked like a middle of the pack team vs the Chiefs last week. I expect Tampa to win but I don't like the spread, I think Atlanta puts up enough of a fight to cover.
TEN @ WAS: TEN -2
Blind Owl: I had high hopes for Washington this year. I thought Wentz would be ok. I was dead wrong. Tennessee is the much better team here. The Titans will win by at least 7.
Concret3Cowboy: Titans here. 2 points of the road is the same as the books telling you what's gonna happen. BrendawnoftheDead: Pshhhh TEN. The Commanders stink, Wentz stinks, Snyder stinks, DC stinks, their uniforms stink, the stadium stinks, and so on. TEN wins and covers due to King Henry being a man amongst boys.
HOU @ JAX: JAX -7
Blind Owl: The Bad Team Bowl is here! Although, the Jags actually have been sort of impressive. Not good by any stretch, but if we’re grading on a Jaguars curve, they’ve looked good. Houston, as we all know, is TERRIBLE. Davis Mills is going to end up like David Carr and I feel bad for him. The Jags take the Bad Team Bowl.
Concret3Cowboy: Everyone is buying into the jags eh? They looked pretty good. Houston is 2-1-1 against the spread, meh it’s going to be 2-2-1 after this one. BrendawnoftheDead: Can't believe I'm typing this but I'm picking Jacksonville. Houston has got nothing this year and Trevor Lawrence looks much better with an actual coaching staff.
SF @ CAR: SF -6.5
Blind Owl: You’ve got to wonder why John Lynch and the 49ers hate Jimmy G. All he does is win. I mean they just waxed the defending Super Bowl champs and he’s been excellent. There’s no reason to pick Carolina here. I hope the 49ers get the message and give up on Lance.
Concret3Cowboy: Carolina offense has been bad, and their defense has been bad. BrendawnoftheDead: Seems like quite the mismatch, as Carolina has been bad this year and San Francisco just smoked the Rams. The handsome wonder Jimmy Geezus leads the 49ers to victory and hopefully lots of fantasy points for Deebo and Kittle. I don't think Carolina can put up much of a fight here. San Francisco wins big.
DAL @ LAR: LAR -5
Blind Owl: I’m rolling with it until it stops working. FEEL THE RUSH!!
Concret3Cowboy: Are the Cowboys actually better without Prescot? I would take the Rams if they didn’t totally crap out against the 49ers last week. Stafford really likes throwing picks this season, that’s going to make this game tighter. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cowboys win this one. BrendawnoftheDead: The Rams have looked extremely pedestrian this season while Cooper Rush has exceeded all reasonable expectations. Zeke is an average back (fight me) and continues to start over Pollard, the better back under contract with Dallas, but I'd take either of them over the Rams running backs. The Rams have better playmakers on defense that will ultimately be the difference and the Rams get the win, but won't be able to cover… gross I just picked the Cowboys.
PHI @ ARI: PHI -5
Blind Owl: I’m totally done with the Cardinals. I’ll pick mostly any team playing them unless they’re playing the Texans. They’ve been up and down all year and it’s finally been enough. Philly has looked REALLY good this year. That’s enough for me. E-A-G-L-E-S.
Concret3Cowboy: The Cards aren’t good, The Eagles are the best team in the league right now. BrendawnoftheDead: Arizona should be a good team, but they are not. Philadelphia is a good team and they will make Arizona look bad. Kyler Murray has disappointed and will do so again. The Eagles have too many weapons and cover easily.
CIN @ BAL: BAL -3.5
Blind Owl: Of course, one of the few Sunday nights I can stay up late and watch the SNF game, it’s an NFC North game I don’t particularly care about. I really don’t care about this one. I know the Cowboy likes Joe Burrow and thinks he’s the second coming of Peyton Manning because he went to LSU (who got absolutely bent over the sink by Tennessee yesterday). So this is an anti-Cowboy pick. And Mrs. Blind Owl went to high school with Patrick Ricard and her sister coached him there, so I’ll take the Ravens.
Concret3Cowboy: This is a tough one, Baltimore can really score when they want to and the Bengals can really screw themselves sometimes. The Bengals should be able to know how to defend Lamar and have the better defense in this matchup. The big thing is turnovers, and the Bengals have been serving them up for most of the season. The Ravens pass rush isn’t great, that’s why I am going with the Bengals. BrendawnoftheDead: The Ravens have trailed for a grand total of 14 seconds this year, but find themselves with 2 losses. Cincy has started looking better after a slow start. I'm conflicted here, I think Cincy has enough to win but Lamar can win single handedly. I suppose I'm picking Cincy because they have more ways to win but I don't feel great about it.
LV @ KC: KC -7
Blind Owl: Going to be honest, I’m just pissed at the Raiders. So I hope KC beats them by 94. Come on Mahomes, take out my frustration about the Broncos and take it out on the Raiders.
Concret3Cowboy: KC has looked like their scary selves, unless they play the Colts. Fuck the Raiders.
BrendawnoftheDead: KC was unstoppable last week against a better team than the Raiders. Division games are always tough but I don't think the Raiders can hang. KC just has too many weapons and Mahomes is too good to hold down for long. KC wins and covers.