2022 Week 4 NFL Picks
I have to start this blog with a big heaping pile of blame pie. I goofed. First of all, I forgot to send the spreads to the guys last week. Also, I was an incredibly busy man last weekend so it became a shit show really quickly. Not to mention one of the guys dealing with a hurricane, and the other deciding to move and inconvenience the posting schedule. But in the end, it was my fault, I got too carried away trying on skinny jeans while pounding away White Claws to get around to posting. But I digress, let’s take a look at how this disjointed week went.
Week 3 Records:
Blind Owl: 5-10-1
Ouch. The Cowboy blew us away. It wasn’t even close. Brendawn and I were basically just fighting to see who would be writing a punishment blog. Now I’m just waiting for these lunk heads to give me a ridiculous topic I have to write about.
Blind Owl: 16-31-1
The Cowboy is doing good this season. You’ve got to give credit where it’s due. He’s picked every Cleveland Browns, and Atlanta Falcons game correctly. That’s an achievement in itself. I’m lucky to only be 4 games back. It’s still really early and Brendawn and I have plenty of time to make up some ground. Now that we sort of know what we’re doing, let’s dive right into week 4:
MIA @ CIN: CIN -4
Blind Owl: It’s amazing what a big time weapon can do for a team. Tyreek Hill has truly opened things up in the Miami offense. Waddle may be the happiest man in South Beach these days. I really don’t like the Bengals. If they can’t protect Joe Burrow, his career is doomed. He seems like he’s got a bit of an ego, and getting lit up every time you drop back isn’t good for an inflated ego. Seeing what’s going on in Cincy is proof to me that last year was a fluke. As for the game itself, I’m pretty sure Tua got his brains scrambled last week, so I’ll go with the Bengals even though I hate them. One good bop to the dome and Tua will think he’s playing right field for the Marlins.
Concret3Cowboy: It's hard to pick against a team that just beat the Bills, but here I go. Joe Burrow has had a rough opening to the season, his teams record and he’s had a problem with turnovers. But I’m writing this as the games are about to start, so Bengals it is.. What’s the Owl going to do about it? He was late as hell last week.
BrendawnoftheDead: I can't believe these words are coming out of my mouth, (Editor’s Note: Unless he did talk to text, this didn’t come out of his mouth) but if Tua plays the Dolphins win. It's not that he's anything special post hip injury, but he's accurate enough to hit the two fastest guys in the NFL and let them run. I hate every fiber of Tyreek Hill's existence, but he has olympic caliber speed and nobody on the Bengals defense can keep up. Waddle isn't much slower and is excellent at short and intermediate routes which really makes the two a matchup nightmare. The Bengals will score some points, Burrow is playing better since his disaster performance in week 1 and they might have the best receiving core in football. Ja'Marr Chase will get his as usual, but it won't be enough. MIA wins by a TD.
NE @ GB: GB -9.5
Blind Owl: My ankle hurt just watching Mac Jones hop off the field last week. Obviously he won’t be playing in this one even though he pretended to be at practice. When I heard this game was this week I thought I was going to pick the Packers no question. Then I took a look at the spread. 9.5 is a ton of points. I know Brian Hoyer is going to be out there slinging the ball, but the Packers haven’t been that impressive. But history has told me to always go with my first instinct. So I’ll take GB, even though I still think Rodgers is a douche.
Concret3Cowboy: How hurt is Mac Jones? Well, he isn’t playing. How old is Hoyer? Old enough to have a good AARP comprehensive health care plan. Green Bay is coming off a good win against the JV Buccaneers football team. I say JV just because of the plethora of injuries that squad is putting up with. The Bucs at least have a top end defense, the Patriots defense has been very porous. The Packers offense hasn’t looked deadly by any means but the Packers have started off the last few seasons pretty slow. Went to do some research on this game and the first headline was “The Patriots special teams give the Packers a lot to prepare for.” Yeah.. that makes this spread more reasonable.
BrendawnoftheDead: That's a big boy spread, but the Patriots have problems. If Mac somehow plays, he'll be extremely limited. Brian Hoyer by default is extremely limited. The Patriots are going to have a hard time moving the ball and Aaron Rodgers is on the other side. Packers win handily.
DEN @ LV: LV -2.5
Blind Owl: Vegas is favored here? They haven’t won a game this year. I probably would’ve taken Denver if the spread was flipped, but I’ll definitely take points too. This could be a really good game to watch.
Concret3Cowboy: I picked against the Broncos with the 49ers last week to help myself feel better for when the Broncos squandered away the game, they just never did. The Denver offense is figuring itself out and is taking steps forward. Vegas is 0-3, but they haven’t looked bad, they just haven’t been able to etch anything into the win column. Renfrow and Moreau are out for the Raiders. The Broncos got Jeudy and Jewell back last week. Jewell is an absolute unit, he was knocked out of the season somewhere around week 3 last season. He’s one of my favorite interior guys in the league. But DJ Jones may miss this game, and that will greatly hurt the Broncos rush defense. I’m feeling better this week than edging out the Texans. Let’s Ride… is still stupid.
BrendawnoftheDead: I don't know why but I have a feeling the Raiders will win this. The Broncos haven't looked good this year and the Raiders have some tight losses. This isn't one of the three scenarios where close counts, but it's now or never for Josh McDaniels. Raiders by a field goal.
MIN @ NO: MIN -3
Blind Owl: Hang on. Let me just check. Nope this game isn’t on in primetime. Jameis is hurt too you say? The Vikings will win this one easily.
Concret3Cowboy: Well, Winston is banged up and Thomas isn’t playing for the Saints. The Vikings looked BAD against the Eagles and edged out the Lions last week, the Saints do have a very solid defense. As a dad who is more interested in history now than I was when I was supposed to be, this isn’t the first time Vikings have gone to London. No, I’m not talking the last two times the Minnesota squad made it across the lake. Way back the King of England was terrified of Vikings burning their women and raping their homes. But as for this football game… I’ll take the points with the Vikings.
BrendawnoftheDead: Jameis throws the ball to the wrong team a whole bunch. Until he stops that, it's going to be really hard to pick the Saints. Kirk is average but average gets it done when throwing to Justin Jefferson. MIN by a TD.
CLE @ ATL: CLE -1
Blind Owl: Look, I have to defer to the Cowboy on this one. He has picked every Browns game correctly this year. As he wrote before I corrected it, “I’ve got a steak here..” I have taken Atlanta a couple times this year and it hasn’t worked out. So I’ll tentatively take the Browns and try to massage the Cowboy’s ego. See what I did there?
Concret3Cowboy: I have a lot at stake here. I’ve nailed each game for both these squads, so either way one of these streaks is going to end with this game. I’ll roll with Cleveland, they have a more complete squad, they’re only 1 point favorites and Atlanta doesn’t necessarily have a crazy home advantage.
BrendawnoftheDead: Jacoby Brissette has been surprisingly good. Nick Chubb has been unsurprisingly good. The Browns will be able to run all over Atlanta and they will do just that. Patterson will have a nice game for Atlanta but they're rebuilding and not ready to win. Browns win via operation ground and pound.
WAS @ DAL: DAL -3
Blind Owl: I’ll say it until it stops working. Feel the RUSH!
Concret3Cowboy: As much as I have been hitting with the Browns and Falcons, the Commanders have hurt me a good bit this season. Dallas has played pretty consistently with Cooper Rush. As for the commanders, they crapped the bucket pretty good against the Eagles. Albeit, a lot of teams aren’t going to do well against the Eagles. This is in Dallas so the fans don’t have to worry about raw sewage falling on them. Slightly higher on Dallas than I have been, but I’m going to let the Commanders continue to hurt me.
BrendawnoftheDead: Cooooooop will find a way. The Commanders' marketing department doesn't know which state they play in and the field has a tendency to leak raw sewage on unsuspecting paying customers. This garbage organization is going to lose to a backup QB. DAL gets it done.
SEA @ DET: DET -4
Blind Owl: I figured this game would be more of a Pick’em situation. Is Ford Field that much of a home field advantage? Anyway, I hate the Seahawks and I’ll always pick against their success. Go Lions.
Concret3Cowboy: YOU DON’T TAKE THE LIONS WHEN THEY ARE FAVORED. Rule of thumb, the Lions haven’t done enough to change that yet. Lions have had a pretty strong offense but with a few injuries to playmakers and Seattle does have a few injuries of their own. Geno Smith vs Jared Goff is quite the prime matchup.
BrendawnoftheDead: Kind of a big spread for two bottom tier teams, but Detroit can score points and doesn't feature Geno Smith throwing the rock. DET by a TD
TEN @ IND: IND -3.5
Blind Owl: The Colts have been so up and down this year. I thought they’d be running away with the division by this point. Tennessee hasn’t been that impressive either. It’s still early in the year but this is a big one for the AFC South. This has game of the week potential actually. Both teams know the divisional records are going to decide who gets a home playoff game. I anticipate a close game. What the Titans want is a low scoring running affair. Both teams have the ability to do that. So I’ll take the Titans with the points in a close game. Maybe 350 rushing yards total in this one.
Concret3Cowboy: The Colts beat the Chiefs and get this spread? Woof. Things did come together for the horseshoe last week, but so did it for the Titans vs the Raiders. This is a pretty hefty spread for two “control the ball” type of teams. I’m going to ride with the Colts, they could have more explosive plays on offense and winning by 4 isn’t an insane task.
BrendawnoftheDead: Neither team has been any good this year so this is a coin flip to me. I think King Henry and Jonathan Taylor both have big games, but TEN at least covers.
CHI @ NYG: NYG -3
Blind Owl: I’ve said it so many times. FIelds SUCKS. The Giants actually haven’t looked terrible. Barkley looks like he is back. Jones hasn’t ruined anything yet. I’ll take the New York Football Giants here.
Concret3Cowboy: I said the Giants were going to stink this year, and they came out the gates roaring. Then I picked ' em against the Cowboys and they melted down. I also said the Bears were going to stink this year. Both these teams are 2–1, but the Giants have a better air attack. The only other time the Bears traveled this year was against the Packers and they got hammered. If it was a lowered spread I’d take the Bears.
BrendawnoftheDead: I don't want any part of watching this dumpster fire of a game. The Giants are slightly less trash than the Bears, slightly. NYG covers.
JAX @ PHI: PHI -6.5
Blind Owl: Jacksonville has looked better than last year. Which isn’t that hard to do. I don’t think their coach is out there dry humping anyone. The Eagles are just putting all kinds of points lately. Philly has earned my pick until they inevitably let me down.
Concret3Cowboy: The Eagles may be the best team in the league right now. They have a very good defense and an offense that can hurt you in every way. Jacksonville hasn’t been bad, even looking like they are going to be in the playoff hunt. But Philly is a scary team right now.
BrendawnoftheDead:Trevor Lawrence looks like he's figuring it out at the pro level. Amazing what can happen with competent offensive coaches (cough, cough, Matt Patricia). They don't have enough to keep pace with Philly, but it will be entertaining. Hurts will have a big game throwing to Smith and Brown, and will steal a TD from Myles Sanders just to sink my fantasy squad. Philly wins and covers.
NYJ @ PIT: PIT -3.5
Blind Owl: This will be an ugly game. But Pittsburgh is clearly the better team. Also, conventional wisdom says pick against the Jets. So I’ll do that.
Concret3Cowboy: I really want to pick the Jets here… so I will. The biggest problem for the Jets is that they have zero ability to rush the passer. This really showed against the Bengals, and the Bengals aren’t good at protecting their QB. The Steelers just aren’t good at scoring points. Their defense has been good but losing TJ has really hurt this unit.
BrendawnoftheDead: I'm tempted to pick the Jets, but I think Wilson might play and that means interceptions. Pittsburgh stinks but the Jets are… well the Jets. PIT finds a way to cover.
BUF @ BAL: BUF -3
Blind Owl: I’ll be locked in on this one this afternoon. Thankfully they’ll actually have this on TV. This could be a shootout to end all shootouts. Josh Allen is great, Lamar Jackson has looked better this year. Here’s to hoping for 100 points and a ton of fantasy points. You have to take the superior offense here and go with the Bills.
Concret3Cowboy: I think the Bills defense is going to fare pretty well against Lamar.. well it has to because I’m playing against him in fantasy this week and I’m the only undefeated team in the league. I like the Bills to bounce back from a loss and take care of the Ravens, fairly convincingly might I add.
BrendawnoftheDead: Battle of the two most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL, from a spectator perspective. Lamar is betting on himself this year and so far he made the right call, he's been incredible. Josh Allen has more weapons to work with and they'll be able to win by more than a field goal, in what should be a shootout. BUF wins by 4.
LAC @ HOU: LAC -5
Blind Owl: The Chargers looked bad last week. Herbert is clearly dealing with something. Fortunately for them, they get to play Houston. I know I’ve been saying it for the better part of two years, Houston is bad. I’m starting to think Davis Mills isn’t terrible. He’s just on a terrible team. The Texans will lose big, but if he ends up on a good team, he could be good.
Concret3Cowboy: The Chargers are hurt, not just Herbert but in a lot of other areas. Keenan Allen isn’t playing, the Houston defense isn’t bad by any stretch. Mills didn’t play well against the Bears last week and the Chargers defense is supposed to be better than them. The Texans don’t get their first win but I like them covering here.
BrendawnoftheDead: Houston tries but that's all I can say about them. As long as the Chargers' doctor doesn't puncture another starting quarterback's lungs, the Chargers should cover here. LAC by 6
ARI @ CAR: CAR -1
Blind Owl: What? I was shocked when I saw this and I’m still shocked. Christian McCaffrey is hurt again (shocker) and Arizona is so much better. I know the Cardinals love to let me down, but how can I lose here?
Concret3Cowboy: Another battle of 1-2 teams this week. I’m going to take the Cards, but I hope Kyler gets another slap across the face.
BrendawnoftheDead: The Cardinals are the most frustrating team in the NFL. All the talent on paper but can't get it together. Kyler Murray has been disappointing and can't win by himself, making him not worth the huge contract he signed. As much as I hate the Cardinals this year, the Panthers are just bad. Arizona wins by a TD.
KC @ TB: PICK
Blind Owl: I love that this one is a Pick’em. I am essentially flipping a coin here. Both teams have looked really good, and really bad this year. I’m going to pick the Chiefs because they’re schedule wasn’t interrupted like the Bucs’ was. This’ll be a good game.
Concret3Cowboy: The Bay Area was largely spared by Hurricane Ian, but the Buccaneers evacuated to Miami on Tuesday ahead of the chaos. I’m confident that the Bucs will be fine with the adjustments they had to make this week. The Chiefs will be ready to go after a disappointing loss last week to the Colts. The Bucs playing at home here helps them, that crowd is going to be good.
BrendawnoftheDead: KC Why not?
LAR @ SF: SF -1,5
Blind Owl: It’s still amazing how San Fran lost their “starting” QB and are getting more respect from the oddsmakers. Just goes to show you how bad Lance is. The 49ers kind of embarrassed themselves last week. And what do they get in return? A tough divisional game. I would’ve taken the Rams if the spread was different. I don’t think San Fran can stop the Kupp show.
Concret3Cowboy: The Rams are slowly getting over their super bowl hangover. San Fran couldn’t do much against the Denver defense last week. 27-13 Rams for this one.
BrendawnoftheDead: Only because SF couldn't get out of their own way last week. SF is better off with Jimmy G, but they would be even better off (grammar?) with an actual game plan and possibly mid game adjustments. I think the Rams win by a last second field goal, meaning they cover.