2021 Week 4 NFL Picks
Well, we are almost as late as can be with these picks. Seeing how the games start in a few hours. This was written on Thursday morning, but life got in the way. All kinds of things got in the way, but here we go.
First let’s take a look at how Concret3Cowboy and I did for Week 3.
Week 3 Results
Blind Owl: 9-7
Again, I show my prominence with an actual winning record for the first time all year. I seem to be getting better, where the Cowboy seems to be getting worse. Picking the points saved me a couple times, like the Packers and Chargers. The Cowboy seems to be having some trouble with the Monday night games. The wild NFC East is something I seem to have totally figured out.
If you want to read our picks from last week (and check my math) go here: https://www.blindowlblogs.com/post/2021-week-3-nfl-picks
Here’s where we stand for the total picks:
Blind Owl: 25-23
My lead continues to expand. Quite honestly, I just have to keep my lead for 13 more weeks. Seems easy right? Not if Concrete3Cowboy has anything to say about it. Let’s see if he can shorten the gap in Week 4.
JAX @ CIN: CIN -7.5
Blind Owl: The Jags aren’t good so my mind is telling me to pick Cincy. But it’s TNF, so things could be weird. My mind is usually pretty good so I’m not going to get cute. Cincy should cover.
Concret3Cowboy: CIN - Jax is just the worst, threatening the Detroit Lions for their NFL record of consecutive losing games. Joe Burrow is a stud and Cincy’s defense is stout. Thursday games tend to play out weird but I’ll take CIN in the spread.
BAL @ DEN: DEN -1
Blind Owl: My heart believes that Denver’s undefeated record is for real. Unfortunately I know that the teams they’ve beaten are awful. Can’t blame them though, they’ve played the teams on their schedule. The Ravens are clearly the best team they’ve played so far. A banged up Lamar Jackson will keep the points down. I’ll take my Broncos until they disappoint me.
Concret3Cowboy: Denver’s opponents may be 0-9 but it’s not like their Alabama picking their schedule. The Ravens needed a 66 yard field goal to beat the Lions in Detroit. Even in my bias Denver should beat the Ravens by a point, especially at home.
TB @ NE: TB -6.5
Blind Owl: Has anyone heard? I think Tom Brady is coming back to New England for the first time since departing after 6 Super Bowls. (This news is unconfirmed). I anticipate Brady being pissed and getting off to a shaky start. Not only that, he is going to break the all-time passing yards record at some point in the first quarter. All that being said, Tampa’s defense will hold the Pats to very few points. Brady will put up points and the Bucs will win by at least two TDs.
Concret3Cowboy: What would be ideal is if the Patriots win and after the game Bill gives Brady the bird as he walks off the field.. about a 0.05% chance of this happening but a man can dream.What’s really going to happen is Bucs are gonna win 45-7 and everyone’s gonna go “See! Bill needed Brady more than Brady needed Bill!” This really shouldn’t even be the prime time game, even though Brady will break the all-time passing yards record in his old stadium… Brady even had a GOAT parade in Boston, brb going to throw up.
NYG @ NO: NO -8
Blind Owl: I still can’t figure out the Saints. Winston either gets away with nightmarish throws like he did against the Patriots. Those throws bite him in the ass more often than not. The Giants on the other hand aren’t that great, and have let me down twice. So, I’ll take Nor’leans.
Concret3Cowboy: Jameis being Jameis, the saints will probably regress this game. However, I feel like the Giants are at their boiling point. That tends to happen when you get hard-riding coaches but don’t get the wins. The saints are still a much better team.
KC @ PHI: KC -7.5
Blind Owl: The Chiefs are last in the AFC West. Just sit on that for a minute, because it won’t last long. Philly isn’t going to put up much of a fight here. Honestly, I figured the spread would be bigger. This will be out of hand quickly.
Concret3Cowboy: In an effort to catch up to the Blind Owl I’m going to take Philly with the spread. Kansas City is super top heavy and they’re going to feel it down the stretch. But in this game, I hope the Eagles can put up a good fight at home.
HOU @ BUF: BUF -16.5
Blind Owl: Holy shit. 16.5 is a gigantic spread. But as I’ve said every week this year. Houston is horrendous. I’d pick Buffalo if the spread was 268.
Concret3Cowboy: 16.5 point spread? Wowza, I said going into week 1 Houston would be competing for the first overall pick and they are not going to win this game. But I need to close the gap and this spread is too big to not try here.
CAR @ DAL: DAL -4.5
Blind Owl: I don’t care for the Cowboys. But I also don’t care for Sam Darnold. No McCaffrey really hurts the Panthers. Dallas all the way.
Concret3Cowboy: Dallas in Jerryland, I think the Cowboys defense is better than the Panthers. Prescot is better than Darnold. Should be a really fun game to watch though.
CLE @ MIN: CLE -2
Blind Owl: I have no idea what the Vikings are. They’ve let me down, and made me look dumb this year. But the Browns have done me good. So, I’ll take the Brownies as a road favorite.
Concret3Cowboy: The Vikings could very easily be undefeated, but they haven’t been able to do what they needed to do to get there. I still think the Browns are the most complete team in the NFL but the Vikings have a real home advantage. Minnesota should walk away with the win, not just a cover.
IND @ MIA: MIA -1.5
Blind Owl: The Battle of Bad teams here. Indy has looked atrocious all year, and Miami got a cheap win over the Pats. So I’ll take the fish because they’ve tasted victory before.
Concret3Cowboy: What is happening in Indianapolis? Carson isn’t playing well.. Hell, none of the team really is. Hilton being hurt has really put this offense in the whole. On the other side, Tua being hurt for the Dolphins has pretty much put them in the grave. Colts get a much needed win here.
TEN @ NYJ: TEN -7.5
Blind Owl: This may be a physical dissection of the Jets defense by Derrick Henry himself. The score may lower because it’ll be a bludgeoning the likes of which the Jets defenders have never felt in their chests. This was an easy pick. The Tennessee Henrys all the way.
Concret3Cowboy: Sam Darnold in Carolina compared to Sam in New York proves Zach Wilson should do everything he can to get out of that Jets uniform. The Jets getting rid of Sam just to draft a less talented QB is a roster move you’d only see in Madden. But it is the Jets, this is what they do, garbage moves.
DET @ CHI: CHI -3
Blind Owl: Y’all know my disdain for Ohio State QBs. That doesn’t mean I’m blinded (hahaha) by my hatred. It’s the Lions we are talking about here. Detroit is just bad enough to make Fields look good today.
Concret3Cowboy: Dalton, Fields or Foles? Nagy is, by strides, the worst coach in the NFL. But it makes sense why he wouldn’t name a starter until game time. He desperately needs a win and needs every advantage over Detroit that he needs. Nagy should only have his job for a few more weeks. The Lions almost shocked the NFL last week but in a typical Detroit heartbreak, an NFL record 66 yarder put the Ravens over. This Detroit team does have a lot of grit to them.
WAS @ ATL: WAS -1.5
Blind Owl: Again, it is typically my policy to pick against the Falcons. And the Football Team has made me look silly a couple times this year. All signs are pointing to Washington for me this week. But something is telling me Matty Ice will light it up this week. So give me the Dirty Birds.
Concret3Cowboy: The Falcons only win was against the Giants, as Washington’s only win was against the Giants. Most people were pretty high on Washington’s defense going into the year but this team hasn’t performed as expected, albeit no one was expecting Fitz to go down so early. Rivera being 1 year cancer free will put that extra pop in the team’s step.
ARI @ LAR: LAR -5
Blind Owl: The Rams seem to be the class of the NFL right now. And why shouldn’t that continue? Arizona can put up points but they probably can’t stop the Rams offense. It’ll be a good game to watch, and great for fantasy owners. The Rams will emerge victorious by a TD.
Concret3Cowboy: 3-0 vs 3-0, huge divisional game. Rams are running hot with a decisive win over Tampa Bay in LA. I still love the Rams to represent the NFC in LA for the Super Bowl. Cardinals are a dangerous team, this game should have been flexed to prime time. It’s kind of surprising the Rams get 5 points in this game but I’ll take it.
SEA @ SF: SF -3
Blind Owl: San Fran lost outright at home last week to Green Bay. In heartbreaking fashion nonetheless. As Dr. Phil says, the best predictor of future behavior is relevant past behavior. Seattle will at least cover this week.
Concret3Cowboy: The Seahawks are 1-2, it felt going into the season that Russell Wilson was going to put all the things his “camp” was saying this offseason behind him and push for that MVP. He played like it in week 1, but this team just isn’t there yet. Never mind their in either 1a or 1b for toughest division in the NFL and they’re going to finish last in it. Jimmy G has played pretty well, but you're still hearing cries for Trey Lance. These are the kind of things that keep great teams from being that great.
PIT @ GB: GB -6.5
Blind Owl: An old school matchup if there ever was one. Although it’ll be a lot different than the early days. Offense is the name of the game now and Green Bay will put up some numbers. The Steelers and an aging BIg Ben won’t be able to keep up.
Concret3Cowboy: I’m sorry Big Ben, well I’m really not, you're not doing too great. But the bigger problem than that is, there’s no one to replace him. I’ll say it first, Kaepernick to Pittsburg? I also just laughed so hard I fell out of my seat. Aaron Rodgers will talk to the media after the win with more words that I’ll have to look up to know what he’s talking about.
LV @ LAC: LAC -3.5
Blind Owl: The Raiders have impressed recently. Quite a good run for the black and silver. But their momentum is going to come to a screeching halt. They’re up against a Chargers team that is coming off a huge win against the defending AFC Champions. The Charger train will roll on and the Raiders will have to regroup.
Concret3Cowboy: The Raiders have come out of the gates incredibly slow each game they’ve played, they’ve also won each game they’ve played. Both these teams have knocked off the Chiefs. I’m going to go with the Chargers here, mostly because I just don’t care for Jon Gruden. It bothers me when people spell John with no “H” in it.