2021 Week 12 NFL Picks
There is no other week during the year that screams football like Thanksgiving week. Even more than Super Bowl week, because not only do we have NFL games, but we have a ton of good college football. Not to mention high school games on Thanksgiving Day.
I know you will all settle down with your meal of choice, whether that be turkey, ham, lasagna or even a tofurkey, the topic of discussion will be the competition between Concret3Cowboy and the Blind Owl. It will consume arguments all across this great nation. Just so you can be the most informed at dinner, here is what happened last week:
Week 10 Results:
Blind Owl: 10-5
For those who don’t recall, the Cowboy won his first week of the year and even titled his email to me “Comeback City.” It was a bold statement. Well, as you can see, that comeback didn’t last. A big 5 game win reasserts my dominance. We’ve even gotten to the point where the Cowboy is claiming I’ve been cheating. So, a middle man has been elected to whom we will both send our picks before it is posted so he can confirm that I am NOT cheating. Whining aside, let’s see how the totals have changed:
Blind Owl: 87-76-2
You know how almost every color commentator says that a team has to “respond” to the other team getting a big play or a score? Well, I’d say I did that, and then some. Not only did I get my win back, I extended my huge lead even more. I now have a 19 game lead in the overall standings. I could go into the prevent defense and just coast to victory, but as a great man once said, “Prevent defense prevents you from winning.” So let’s see if I can push my lead even more in Week 12:
CHI @ DET: CHI -3.5
Blind Owl: All I have to say is the NFL does one thing very right on Thanksgiving Day. They put the worst game on first. Everyone (at least in my family) will be eating at about 1 o’clock. So we will get to see the beginning of his horrendous game and then move on with our lives. When it comes to my actual pick, I would love to abstain from this one. I don’t like either team here. If there was a game that should end in a 0-0 tie, it should be this one. But, I have to pick someone. So I’ll take Detroit with the points because it’s Thanksgiving and I’d like to thank them for getting their game out of the way early.
Concret3Cowboy: Tim Boyle or Andy Dalton? I’m sticking with the lions, I can’t give you any good reasons or any reasons really.
LV @ DAL: DAL -7.5
Blind Owl: In the afternoon slot on Turkey Day, we come to the game that is typically the better of the two traditional ones. Unfortunately for football fans, it is going to be boring. Even though Dallas is coming off a big loss to KC, they won’t struggle at all with the Raiders in this game. Just let the tryptophan in the bird put you to sleep while the Cowboys put up offense.
Concret3Cowboy: Dallas fell really flat last week against the Chiefs. Coming off a short week I think 7.5 is a pretty big spread. The Raiders haven’t been playing well for a few weeks but I need them to cover.
BUF @ NO: BUF -5.5
Blind Owl: Finally, the best of the three Thanksgiving games. This will be a decent game. The Saints will hang with the Bills probably through 3 quarters. Unfortunately, they’ll come up at least a TD short. I know the Bills have struggled as of late, but they seem to do well against decent teams. Although that 9-6 loss to the Jags is still terrible.
Concret3Cowboy: Buffalo really stunk last week, the Colts absolutely ran wild on them. Like I said last week, Jonathan Taylor is a no bullshit top 3 back any week. The Saints also played like garbage against the Eagles. Rolling with Bills Mafia this week.
TEN @ NE: NE -6.5
Blind Owl: At the beginning of the year, this game looked like it would be a drubbing of the Patriots. Now, nobody knows what the hell the Titans are. On the flip side, the Patriots have looked better than anyone could have expected. As insufferable as their fans have been the past couple weeks, I have to agree with them that they look good. I’ll pick the Patriots here.
Concret3Cowboy: I haven’t believed in this Titan team since they lost to the Jets, and now they lost to the freakin Texans. New England has turned into a pretty scary team, Vrabel is in a tough spot. Bill likes to make the most important player of the other team disappear and Derrick Henry is already gone. I couldn’t tell you who is Tennessee’s top weapon now.
LAC @ DEN: LAC -2.5
Blind Owl: I had to look at this spread a few times. I thought my blindness was showing. But it is 100% right. 2.5 is a tiny spread for this game. That’s coming from a Broncos fan. The Chargers are the easy pick here.
Concret3Cowboy: Teddy can’t match Herbert’s firepower. The only way the Broncos have been able to win is when they control the entire game in the trenches. If Denver falls behind early it’s in the Chargers wheelhouse.
ATL @ JAX: ATL -1
Blind Owl: This is chapter one of the week 12 Battle of Bad Teams. This one isn’t a hard choice. Atlanta hasn’t been good, but they haven’t been as bad as Jacksonville. Give me Matty Ice in a BIG win.
Concret3Cowboy: I’m just never going to pick the Falcons again. They suck. Whenever I do pick them it’s just absolutely disastrous. I also hate Jacksonville but you can’t pick both teams to lose.
NYJ @ HOU: HOU -3
Blind Owl: And now it’s time for chapter two of Battle of the Bad Teams. This one is a much tougher choice. But, I have to stick to my guns. Houston is TERRIBLE. I have no clue how they’re favored. Give me the Jets with the points.
Concret3Cowboy: Coming off a great win will go a long way for this Houston team. The Jets lost to an improving Dolphins team but I have to side with the home team. Who’s even playing QB for the Jets? Flacco actually did pretty well last week.
PHI @ NYG: PHI -3.5
Blind Owl: The AFC East is always a whacky division. The Cowboys seem to have it in hand this year, but the Eagles are hanging in there. The Giants are coming off of a demolition by the Bucs which plays right into Philly’s hands. Eagles win here.
Concret3Cowboy: Philly has discovered their formula, run the ball and have Hurts do as little as possible. Taking the pressure of Hurts has really helped the whole team. At 5-6 they’re a dark horse to make the playoffs.
PIT @ CIN: CIN -4.5
Blind Owl: Another deep dive into the mind of the Cowboy. I know for a fact he’s going to pick the Bengals. Not only am I going to pick them to stay in the lead, but I also think they’ll cover. The Steelers are coming off a big let down against the Chargers and the Bengals beat the Raiders convincingly. This has the potential to be the game of the week though. There’s always bad blood in these matchups.
Concret3Cowboy: Cincinnati is another team that just doesn’t deliver when I pick them. However I believe in 2nd chances, or 3rd and 4th chances. At 7th chance though, that’s where I draw the line, when I’m very deep in the hole and there’s zero chance of any gain left.
TB @ IND: TB -3
Blind Owl: Holy Jonathan Taylor. 5 TDs is wild. It definitely helped my fantasy team though. The Colts are riding high right now. I think they might catch the Titans and win the division. This game won’t help that cause though. Tampa seems to have righted the shit (waka waka) and beat the brakes off of the G-men. The Colts will put up a fight, but Tampa will cover the 3 point spread.
Concret3Cowboy: I’m going to go with the baby horses. AB will probably be back for the Bucs but this team in Tampa just doesn’t have the same juice behind them that they had last season, and Vita missing another game will give Taylor a good chance to take full control of this game.
CAR @ MIA: CAR -2
Blind Owl: In typical Cam Newton fashion, he held the ball and got sacked to lose the game last week. There was a bit of schadenfreude there because of the “I’M BACK!!” nonsense I was forced to endure. That being said, I think they’ll cover here. They definitely have more talent than Miami and eventually talent wins out. Big McCaffrey game here.
Concret3Cowboy: The Dolphins are getting back to what they looked like week 1. They’re definitely going in the right direction, away from the #1 overall pick. I’m really not sure how to feel about Carolina but I expect them to win nonetheless.
MIN @ SF: SF -3
Blind Owl: What a great game Minnesota had last week against Green Bay. I figured they’d be favored in this game in San Fran. I know Jimmy G is doing ok keeping San Fran afloat. I would’ve taken the Vikings if they were favored so I’ll take the points as a little bonus.
Concret3Cowboy: Kirk Cousins is a stud. I’ve loved the dude since I first saw him playing at MSU. He’s grossly underrated, mainly because he isn’t flashy. I wanted him to come to Denver so bad a few years ago but instead we got Casey Keenum in orange and blue (we know how that went). San Fran is looking more like what I was expecting from them early this season, but I still like Minnesota this game.
LAR @ GB: GB -1
Blind Owl: This is going to be a great game. Thank god it’s not too late and I actually get to watch all of it. I went back and forth all day trying to decide who I was going to pick. So I went with a great strategy that has treated me well through the years. That is going with my first instinct. When I first looked at this game, I immediately said “Packer all the way.” Especially since they are in Green Bay. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rams won, but I have to go with the known commodity. Aaron Rodgers has a history of beating Matt Stafford. In fact, he did it twice a year for quite some time. I’ll pick the Pack in what should be a shootout.
Concret3Cowboy: The Rams have to win this game. They have too many stars on this team to fall flat again. It feels like they're at a pivotal point in the season where they could just spiral out of Super Bowl contention if they can’t get it together. Aaron Rodgers has a fractured toe (as you could see on his Twitter page) and it’s going to be bothering him until the offseason. Many things are in the Rams favor, they need this.
CLE @ BAL: BAL -3.5
Blind Owl: Not having Lamar last week hurt the Ravens. That’s the problem when you have a great player that you build around. It hurt my fantasy team too by the way. Thankfully Jimmy G did well. Anyway, Baltimore will get a big boost having Jackson back. The Browns meanwhile almost lost to the Lions. Need I say more? Ravens.
Concret3Cowboy: Whenever an NFL wife gets on Twitter or Instagram it never turns out well. Mayfield basically said “the Browns are all a bunch of pussies and can’t even hold a candle to the flame that is my husband's super manly and superhero-like toughness and determination” … or something like that. NFL wives are worse than Army wives, if you don’t know that’s when you get a battalion commander and his wife believes that’s her rank as well. It never turns out well.
SEA @ WFT: PICK
Blind Owl: How the mighty have fallen. Russell Wilson was once thought to be a top 5 QB. Does a finger have that much to do with his game? He’s got good talent around him, he just can’t get the ball there. The Football Team has been riding Taylor Heinicke (or Heineken as Terry Bradshaw called him several times on Fox last week). Washington beat Carolina last week and Seattle continued its slide. I have to think Seattle will be able to sneak out a win in this game with no spread.
Concret3Cowboy: I got into a debate on Twitter about how Russel Wilson coming back early doesn’t make him Superman. And now it’s clear he came back too early and isn’t ready for live action. He’s been garbage the last two games, even without Chase Young on WFT, he won’t play much better this week either.